ItzaFineDay: Creative Commons Attribution

Stakeholder pressures are growing as predicted

Since July 2008, Critical Resource has published ten articles analysing political and stakeholder risks around extractive projects in the news. Drawing from our LicenseSecure model – which assesses threats to the socio-political 'license to operate' – we made numerous predictions about how these issues could develop. This webpage presents a brief update on these articles.

Although these analyses were rapid and outside-in, LicenseSecure is already showing its predictive power. In some of the projects we examined, it is too soon to judge the accuracy of our predictions. In none of the cases, however, have pressures evolved along very different lines from those we envisaged. And in a significant number, the key risks we highlighted have come dramatically to the fore - see below for a summary. Links to the original articles are at the bottom of this page.

Complete list of articles (with links to full text):

• Jubilee, Ghana – Kosmos, March 2010
  “Exxon in Ghana: billion-dollar lessons in managing resource politics”
  Current status: Very recent analysis; outcome remains uncertain

• Phulbari, Bangladesh – GCM, Jan 2010
  “Bangladesh coal controversy: power to the people?”
  Current status: Very recent analysis; outcome remains uncertain

• Las Bambas, Peru – Xstrata, Dec 2009
  “Xstrata in Peru: will CSR ‘best practice’ keep communities on side?”
  Current status: Community relatively supportive as predicted

• Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia - Ivanhoe, Sep 2009
  “Oyu Tolgoi : A golden opportunity – if Mongolia stays the course”
  Current status: See above

• Miran, Iraqi Kurdistan - Heritage, July 2009
  “Heritage Oil in Kurdistan: Profits hinge on fraught Iraqi politics”
  Current status: See above

• Pre-salt fields, Brazil - various firms, Apr 2009
  “Brazil's oil carnival?”
  Current status: See above

• Oil sands, Canada - various firms, Jan 2009
  “From oilsands to quicksands?”
  Current status: See above

• Nimba, Liberia – ArcelorMittal, Oct 2008
  “ArcelorMittal’s African gamble”
  Current status: Outcome remains uncertain

• Imouraren, Niger - Areva, Sep 2008
  “Areva feels the heat in Niger”
  Current status: See above

• Gag, Indonesia – BHP Billiton, July 2008
  “An unfunny Gag in Indonesia” 
  Current status: BHP announced in Nov 2008 it would not develop Gag

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Photo credits: Toxic Tarsands - ItzaFineDay: Creative Commons Attribution; Iraqi lawmakers - Edmund Jenks: Creative Commons Attribution; Tuareg man - ©istockphoto.com/David Kerkhoff; Stampede - ©istockphoto.com/AContadini; Yurt ©istockphoto.com/Kesman