The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™
The politics of resources redefined™

Predicting threats to extractive projects: did we get it right?

A review of our past bulletin articles demonstrates that the LicenseSecure model can significantly strengthen foresight of socio-political risks

Stakeholder pressures are growing as predicted

Since July 2008, Critical Resource has published ten articles analysing political and stakeholder risks around extractive projects in the news. Drawing from our LicenseSecure model – which assesses threats to the socio-political ‘license to operate’ – we made numerous predictions about how these issues could develop. This webpage presents a brief update on these articles.

Although these analyses were rapid and outside-in, LicenseSecure is already showing its predictive power. In some of the projects we examined, it is too soon to judge the accuracy of our predictions. In none of the cases, however, have pressures evolved along very different lines from those we envisaged. And in a significant number, the key risks we highlighted have come dramatically to the fore – see below for a summary. Links to the original articles are at the bottom of this page.

 

Complete list of articles (with links to full text):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Photo credits: Toxic Tarsands – ItzaFineDay: Creative Commons Attribution; Iraqi lawmakers – Edmund Jenks: Creative Commons Attribution; Tuareg man – ©istockphoto.com/David Kerkhoff; Stampede – ©istockphoto.com/AContadini; Yurt ©istockphoto.com/Kesman